July 16, 2010

Great Expectations.

The Kulmiye Party’s Victory in the Somaliland Presidential election was historic. It was long time coming because of the near two years delay which at times, caused great political tension and spontaneous and short episodes of politically motivated violence. However, despite the difficulties experienced along the road to the election, Somaliland’s infant democracy has shown itself to be strengthening and maturing fast. The presidential election was won by the Kulmiye party which was lead by Ahmed Silanyo. Kulmiye managed to secure a convincing 49.59% of the popular vote whilst the governing UDUB party lead by President Dahir Kahin Rayale only managed 33.23%. The third party, UCID lead by Faisal Ali Warabe managed to scrape 17.18%.

What made this election so successful and memorable to the watching world was the manner in which power changed hands so easily and freely as the election results were accepted as binding by all the Parties almost immediately after been announced by the Somaliland Election Commission.

More commendable were the actions of the defeated President Dahir Rayale who accepted the results and congratulated the incoming President Silanyo. He also refuted many rumours within the defeated UDUB camp that Kulmiye had cheated through vote rigging. This dignified, mature and graceful exit from power, which is rarely witnessed in the developing world, shows that Dahir Rayale is a man of his word and more importantly, it sets a precedent for any person holding presidential office in Somaliland. It reinforces the growing strength of the democratisation process in Somaliland and the message it send out to all those within the political process is that they will only govern with the consent of the people and they will also respect the people’s wishes as they are their public servants.

Dahir Rayale’s years of unpopular leadership, especially after the presidential elections were delayed, resembles that of the former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown who himself inherited the role from the then leader of the Labour government Tony Blair.  Both of there flaws were cruelly highlighted in the national media of their home nations. However, both leaders accepted their defeat and its consequences when it came and by stepping down and accepting the voter’s wishes, they rediscovered leadership.

The Somaliland people’s efforts and hard work has paid of. Their patience has been rewarded with a peaceful and globally recognised election. This truly is a great achievement for a small nation still internationally sharing a name with the lawless and failed Somali Republic which is partially still governed by warlords in suits and AK47’s.

However, there is very little time to celebrate after the elections. The work of governing the country must continue along side the national celebration parties. As swiftly as the nation has bid farewell to the former president Mr. Rayale, it must say hello to it’s newly elected one, President Ahmed Silanyo.

For Mr. Silanyo, this election win was one of his dreams and it took him a long time to secure it. He has waited patiently for far too long and now he has been finally trusted by the public to lead them from where Mr. Rayale left off. However, he must proceed with caution if he is to succeed.

Mr, Silanyo’s challenges are not small and they are made even more difficult by the global financial recession as Somaliland’s remittance dependent economy slows down. This coupled with the public’s great expectations of greater employment creation, better education and national recognition only makes the job harder for him. However, the public always expect more after electing a new leader and from now on, President elect Silanyo has nowhere to hide and no one to blame. The luxury of unaccountability in opposition is over as this government now is his in the eyes of the electorate and they will be holding him directly responsible for all its actions.

In order to succeed in leading his Party and people, President elect Silanyo must not only address the challenges facing the people of Somaliland but he must also tackle the problems inherent within the country’s political system. The most important of these are corruption and arrogant, ill informed governance.

The political elite needs to urgently learn to listen to, respect and consult the electorate before making decision for them which they perceive to be in their best interests. Bill Clinton lied to the American public over the Monica Lewinsky affair and lost public support whilst Tony Blair refused to listen to the large anti war movement in the UK and fell out of favour quickly. The political elite in most nations around the world are not in touch with the public that had once elected them and this is a grave mistake, especially in a growing democracy like Somaliland. Instead of shunning the public, President elect Silanyo would be wise to make them a partner in their own progress and government. He would be wise to welcome their opinion and feedback as only by doing this will he be able to, as far as it is possible, translate the public’s aspirations into tangible policies.

History seldom remembers leaders favourably. Bill Clinton’s considerable efforts in the Middle East are to this day overshadowed by his affair with Monica Lewinsky. Tony Blair’s massive social reform programmes have gone almost unnoticed since the invasion of Iraq and, just like these two former leaders, Mr. Silanyo’s dream welcome into government can go horribly wrong if he does not set himself, with the assistance of the public of course, clear achievable policy goals. The achievement of these collectively agreed and realistic goals will be the basis on which the success and failures of the Kulmiye Party will be assessed in the next presidential elections. The political graveyards of Africa are full of leaders who tried to achieve everything. The obituaries of these leaders show that in the process of attempting to achieve everything and leaving behind a lasting legacy, they turned thriving democracies into dictatorships which they governed through terror.

What these so called leaders did not understand is that change takes time and all they were required to do was to make their contribution in the time they had. Achieving small goals aimed at long term sustainable progress is always better than short term sensationalist policies which almost always prove disastrous. All policies at their core should be aimed at improving public services and not individual personal or Party status. They must also have real social purpose and their formulation and implementation needs to be based on evidence and best practice.

It will now be difficult for the world to ignore Somaliland’s electoral triumph and fast paced democratisation process. In order to sustain this pressure for the purpose of Somaliland recognition, good governance must follow. Kulmiye has been elected in a fair and free election. They have convinced the public that their policies are the right ones to lead Somaliland’s development to the next stage. Whilst Mr. Rayale must be thanked for his service to the people of Somaliland, Silanyo must recognise that his has only started as their leader.

The difficulties ahead are clear but they are not impossible to tackle. Mr. Silanyo has already made some early progress through the establishment of the National Advisory Committee which he promises to listen to and consult. He has also made it clear that all minsiterial appointment will be made on merit and not on tribal affiliation. These were the very important early right steps that needed to be taken in order to build trust and confidence in his government and leadership. The President elect is a veteran politician who has spent decades in the political trenches and through experience he knows that the Somaliland public are watching his every move and expecting change. The question is can he deliver this for them?

This is something only time will tell but with collective vision, government unity and strong leadership Somaliland can strengthen its reputation as one of the democratic jewels of the entire African continent.

liban Obsiye.

Bristol, UK.

Email: Libanbakaa@hotmail.com

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